When do you think people will start to switch en masse?
If you don't think they ever will, what will happen instead? A slow trickle? Some other Internet protocol?
For bonus points, rationalize your prediction and include references to support it.
Imminent death of the internet predicted!
Film at 11.
No matter if the transition is smooth or not, I hope that providers will start enabling at least multicast. That would be wonderful for p2p.
Me, I'm ready to go full ipv6 when my ISP does (Well, some really old boxes aside).
As of December 2005, IPv6 accounts for a tiny percentage of the live addresses in the publicly-accessible Internet, which is still dominated by IPv4. The adoption of IPv6 has been slowed by the introduction of classless inter-domain routing (CIDR) and network address translation (NAT), each of which has partially alleviated the impact of address space exhaustion. Estimates as to when the pool of available IPv4 addresses will be exhausted vary — in 2003, Paul Wilson (director of APNIC) stated that, based on then-current rates of deployment, the available space would last until 2023, while in September 2005 a report by Cisco Systems that the pool of available addresses would be exhausted in as little as 4–5 years. As of November 2006, a regularly updated report projected that the IANA pool of unallocated addresses would be exhausted in May 2011, with the various Regional Internet Registries using up their allocations from IANA in August 2012. This report also argues that, if assigned but unused addresses were reclaimed and used to meet continuing demand, allocation of IPv4 addresses could continue until 2024. The U.S. Government has specified that the network backbones of all federal agencies must deploy IPv6 by 2008. Meanwhile China is planning to get a head start implementing IPv6 with their 5 year plan for the China Next Generation Internet.
IPv6 multicast works in exactly the same way that IPv4 multicast works. There are different sizes of padding and address fields in packet headers, but it's roughly the same.
Well, yeah. But ISPs don't implement ipv4 multicast. And I hope that when they'll upgrade their equipment eventually, they'll also consider doing multicast, to take some work off their pipes by creating the possibility to make p2p more effective.
IPv6 seems to keep having security problems due to bad design. Type 0 route headers, for example. That shouldn't have even happened.