>>602 most Americans aren't really into biopics unless they're a really well-known individual. That's why most Hollywood blockbusters are action flicks with a lot of special effects. Most "real" films that do well are based on historical events--12 Years a Slave, Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, etc. The Academy looks down on "popcorn flicks," often franchises (like any Marvel movie), and they will never win awards (one exception that comes to mind is The Dark Knight). Academy Awards are very political, and most Academy members who vote are stuffy, older white males. A good performance in a respected movie (biopics may be acceptable in this category) may translate to a nomination, but the rest is completely political. Want to know why Lupita won Best Supporting this year? Because Jennifer Lawrence won one last year, and she's only in her early 20s. No way would they give her Oscars back-to-back.

This fact could help and hurt Tom. Tom has never been nominated. Best Actor is the toughest award to win since there are so many meaty roles for men. I think they would give the Oscar to someone who had already been previously nominated, because it would be "their time finally." For Tom, a nomination by the Academy at this stage would be good enough for his career and seen by them as an honorable gesture.

However, a nomination depends largely on the films itself. Oscar movies are almost exclusively released late in the year (November/December), just in time for Award Season. They are often low-budget with a limited release. As soon as there is a release date for I Saw the Light, then we'll be able to tell if it's Spring-easy viewing, Summer-blockbuster, or Late Fall-Oscar bait category. If it's not planned to be released late in the year (and they set a date then change it if the studio thinks the film is not as Oscar baity as originally thought, i.e. The Great Gatsby), then an Oscar for the film or an actor/actress is simply just not going to happen.

Plus, I'm still very skeptical of his singing. Critics will rip him apart, especially since he is a Brit trying to play an American "legend" (I'd never heard of him before this but to each there own, he's probably very well-known in some circles). We are generally not so forgiving when foreigners try to play our legends in movies.