>>3 >>4
I don't think Nukes are an issue here. In fact Sarkozy's attitude towards international relationships is way more "secure" than Royal's, which is more unadapted, like "hey hey everyone loves everyone, we're all happy" - socialist way. Not that it's bad, but I don't think it's really viable. Sarkozy is heading towards strengthening the national cohesion, while having a more mature diplomacy. That doesn't mean nuking everyone, that just means knowing who is who - and where they are, and what they want. We live in a time of rising powers who want their share of the cake, after all.

>>2
I also think that way. Most people who voted centrist (18% or so) were undecisive about Royal or Sarkozy and chose the inbetween. Royal will get most if not all of the left-wing votes. Even if not high in %, they are numerous. Sarkozy will probably get extreme-right votes, being kinda consequent (10% for LePen), and some other.
On the whole, I think Royal has more chance now, but not by far. The debates and speeches which will take place in the next few days will probably be decisive.