I'm shocked guys, usually you can't get a word in edgewise as soon as France is mentioned on an English board...

I agree with >>5, the people who didn't vote PN (LePen) will decide this. Right now I'd say UMP has the advantage. Slight edge in polls, more experienced candidate. Maybe? Meh.

I'm also surprised at the descriptions OP gave, they match my impressions. How I laughed a few months ago when I saw Ms. Segolene giving a minister a list of political prisoners she wanted freed, yes, madam, you just have to ask... All in all I'd vote PS hoping on Segolene getting some qualified ministers. I just know Sarkozy would run the country with an iron grip (some would say he already has from 2005's riots) I mean he's going for votes from the extreme right, guh.